Sometimes, I Hate Being Right - On the War in Ukraine
What are the odds that Ukraine will win the war and defeat Russia? How does the war with Russia end? Are we in danger of a World War Three? Will WWIII be a nuclear war?
Well, that happened
I was caught off guard when the conflict started, as I imagine most of us were. I did not expect Russia to invade another sovereign country in the 21st century, especially not one lying just a half-day ride north of me. I had falsely believed the days of tanks, machine guns, and blood fertilizing the ground were behind us thinking we had evolved past that. I was wrong.
Then I did what any sane person seeking to fill the void in his understanding would do—I dug in and did my research.
I discovered things aren’t nearly as simple as the “powers that be” want to make us think. The good guys were proper assholes, the unbiased mediators were, in fact, very biased instigators, and the bad guys, while remaining bad guys, were somewhat justified in their actions.
Don’t worry—I’m still “team Ukraine”
However foolish they behave, however corrupt, and however bloody their hands might be, they are still the attacked nation in this war and one closer to “the West” than the aggressor. Not to mention, they’re the underdog in this fight, and I always root for the underdog. It’s a whole thing.
But I can’t for the life of me understand how people can expect them to win against Russia?
Do you not have eyes?
Can you not count?
Does common sense not exist anymore?
Are you so consumed in your “team spirit” theatrics that your rational mind has completely shut off?
Do you just believe everything you hear on TV?
Let me help you there. We’re not even mentioning nuclear weapons in the arsenal. Last I checked, a few thousand that we know of.
We, humans, have opinions, but we often don’t have facts
The following is my opinion, and as such, it can be flawed, completely wrong, and a touch insensitive to those gentler souls out there who just want the “good guys” to win. It is entirely possible that I’m the blind one. I mean it. One has to be humble enough to realize he doesn’t have all the data and can occasionally make entirely wrong conclusions. It wouldn’t be the first time.
Anything is possible at any time.
Perhaps I don’t know of some hidden cave-dwelling, unregistered population of Ukrainians that are about to hit the front, overwhelming Russia's infinitely available bodies for the meat grinder.
Maybe Ukrainians are secretly working with technologically advanced aliens, I mean, besides the Americans, that will tip the scales in their favor against nukes and an overwhelming force.
Maybe the wrath of “the old man in the sky” backs these brave souls in their fight against Goliath.
Perhaps Putin’s people will overthrow him, and instead of the obvious and far more radical leaders, some gentle, peace-loving, democratically inclined leader will succeed him without getting mauled by the other Russians who despise weakness, but whatever.
Maybe the Russians will just give up and surrender all the land they acquired through blood and tears because they “feel like it” or “get tired of fighting” and want McDonalds back in the country. It’s hard to argue with that logic, I’ll admit.
What does a Ukrainian victory look like?
I’m sure there’s more, but that’s the jist of it, from what I can tell.
For Russians to completely evacuate their land and give all the land they won and annexation to the “motherland.”
For Russia to pay reparations for their attack and rebuild Ukraine.
For Ukraine to be able to join the European Union and NATO.
Let’s not forget that they demand that Russia remove Putin from his position, as they have made it illegal to talk or negotiate with him. No biggie.
In short, they demand a total victory over Russia, who then has to admit utter incompetence and impotence and accept soul-crushing humiliation for all the world to see.
“It’s only just! Why should they give an inch to the aggressor? Not an inch shall be given, and Russia should pay it all back with interest!” I hear you nodding in approval.
These are all noble ideas, I confess. They warm my heart. If this world were fair and just, we might indeed always get what we want. Is it, though? A world where justice always prevails against overwhelming odds? I think you might be thinking of fiction (movies and books).
Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen
Assume for a moment that you have to place a bet on just how likely it is that they will get all that they want and all that the Western leaders vehemently agree is the only way to end the war. Leave your emotions at the door, the sense of justice, and the sentiment of right winning over the darkness, and place your bet. If you guess right, you get ten million dollars and live happily ever after. If you guess wrong, you and your family all die a horrible death.
The bet is, what are the odds that Ukraine will get everything they want (and we listed above)?
0%?
50%?
100%?
Why such high stakes, you ask?
Because we are essentially gambling with Ukrainian lives, and I, for the life of me, can’t see them as any less valuable than yours and mine.
Every life lost on the battlefield is a tragedy. Wars aren’t just some numbers on the screen. People are dying by the thousands every day! The longer the conflict lasts, the more people will die. This is not an opinion but a fact!
“But, but, but… if we give “Putler” what he wants, he’ll just attack again and then take the whole of Europe! And then the numbers will be higher!” I hear you protesting. Yes, your voice is heard, and your concerns are noted.
Well, this is another example of an opinion, not a fact. People are dying today. Tomorrow is not guaranteed. We don’t know what will happen in a day, much less in a decade. Just because things went haywire with Hitler back in the day, there is no certainty that history will indeed repeat itself. Knowing what went wrong before, we are more prepared to prevent it.
But yes, you are right - there is always that possibility. I just don’t think it’s all that likely, while a few hundred thousand more Ukrainians dying in the next few years unless a deal is struck is a guarantee! I vote for the “live to see another day, and we’ll take it from there” option.
A more realistic scenario where Ukrain wins
I can see a path forward where Ukraine wins. Interested? I must warn you, though. It’s a path everyone else loses.
The only way for this fabled ultimate and complete Ukrainian victory that I can see is one where we all go to war with Russia. When I say “we,” I mean Europe, NATO, and America, with possible additional allies. When I say Russia, it’s almost guaranteed to spread to China, Iran, and perhaps some BRIC countries to top things off.
You don’t really believe you MSN when they say Russia has no friends anymore, do you? Even Hitler had allies, remember. And a wife and a dog who loved them, if you can believe it!
It was a whole thing we called the Axis of Evil. What a magnificent term, don’t you agree? It makes you want to get up, give yourself to the service of your fellow men, and fight this evil before it reaches your land! It worked. I wonder if it would work today?
I don’t think men today, myself included, are the men who fought this evil almost a hundred years ago. I would be surprised to see hundreds of thousands of volunteers just waiting to serve their country across the sea, on some faraway front.
It’s good that we don’t ask people to fight in war. We demand it. Yes, you, your sons, brothers, friends, and if we’re so invested in equality, daughters, wives, and sisters, too. All are to be summoned and give their lives for this just and holy cause—the complete and utter Ukrainian victory!
How do you like this option thus far?
Are you counting on being too old to be drafted?
Do you think it will never come to this?
Is that cause, just though it may be, worth your life, your son’s life, and millions more if things take a wrong turn?
What would it take to defeat such a powerful adversary?
I don’t know, but I’m guessing it would take a death toll in the millions, and this time, not just Ukrainian and Russian soldiers. Trillions of dollars in costs, but who’s counting in an age of infinite money printing, anyway?
Assuming it would last about a decade or so without the use of nuclear options, this might be quite a costly victory. You know what, somehow, I don’t think that’s a realistic option. In an age of overwhelming nuclear arsenals on both sides, the odds of those not getting used in such an overwhelming conflict are “not great.” Weapons are built to be used when their deterring power is diminished.
I would put the odds of nuclear weapons being used in such a conflict, at least in a limiting capacity, at 60-90%.
A nuclear war would undoubtedly be the most casualty-heavy of all wars in human history, Especially regarding the civilian population, not to mention the long-term effects of such a conflict on the environment, society, and health of future generations.
But I agree with you - we would almost certainly win in the long run. I’m reasonably sure Russia and the always calculative stone-cold killer Putin know this as well. Victory will be ours, but at what cost?
The day after the victory
Is waking up to billions of dead people and a landscape more resembling the set of Fallout (TV series or games) really worth sticking to your principles?
Don’t get me wrong, I’m the first to stand for my core values and principles, come hell or high water. I’m with you on that. I’ve always been willing to die for what I believe in or go to the poor house. We know Ukrainians are as well, for the time being. Are you?
Here’s the thing: Most of us have forgotten what war actually looks like. We think it’s a game played somewhere far away. We read about thousands dying, but those are just numbers to us. Most people who have survived the horrors of World Wars I and II are dead now. With them, the feeling of tangible consequences seems to have been lost. We’ve enjoyed over 70 years of peace because no one wanted a repeat of that horror.
You may feel safe across the pond since your wars are always fought in some faraway land. Count yourself lucky not to have to rebuild your civilization practically from scratch and, more importantly, say goodbye to almost everyone you know and love. It has made you complacent. No enemy boots ever walked in your streets, and no shell ever bombed your cities.
You talk of war as if it’s some game. You think of the cost and speak of made-up billions, but you don’t know. You don’t know what war is really like.
No one who has seen war up close wants more war, friends. Rest assured, in a nuclear war, we’re all neighbors just hours away by air, sniffing the same radiation through our nostrils once the bombs start flying. Unity at last. Unity in misery and death.
I grew up in a country torn up by war
I was speared the horrors firsthand. I only lived it through those less fortunate than us. We housed thousands of refugees in our homes as they had to flee the genocide being committed in their towns—most lost family and friends. We talked to them, comforted them, and prayed for their families stuck behind enemy lines.
For a decade, we saw scenes of horror, suffering, and destruction on our TVs. It was no faraway land that was under fire. They were our neighbors, people we once called brothers and sisters, who were now slaughtering each other.
That war, too (The Balkan War), was started because one part of the larger country refused to accept that some parts wanted to be independent of the whole. They, too, thought that was reason enough to murder them and force their will upon their neighbors. “All or nothing,” they screamed! “We will be whole again! We are one country and won’t give an inch!”
And for what? Who won, and what was the prize?
The only honest answer is no one and nothing on both accounts. We survived, and those of us who did. That’s about it. Other than that, things ended up exactly as they were set up behind the negotiating table.
We are each a separate country now, and Yugoslavia is no more, but tens of thousands of people were killed, tortured, and displaced. One may look at Ukrain’s inner struggles and notice some vivid resemblance.
Why do I mention this now?
Because a negotiated deal is the best outcome of this war for all sides, including Ukraine. Sure, compromises would have to be accepted, and they sting. But what is the alternative? Death and destruction in the millions.
Let’s not go to the whole “they were ready to negotiate a few hundred thousand dead earlier, but the West advised against it” conspiracy theory that is or isn’t one. I’m sure we all understand that, if they wanted, they could have initiated more serious negotiations but somehow felt emboldened that they could win an open war with Russia. I wonder who or what gave them that idea.
“But Putin wants all of Ukraine, including Kyiv, and then he’ll move on to Poland… You don’t negotiate with Hitler!”
Unpopular opinion
Do you want to know why I don’t think that is true? Here’s my theory based on observations. Again, I could be proven wrong, but I prefer to be right this time.
Putin could have taken Kyiv or at least annihilated it if he so chose. A man with three thousand nukes and millions upon millions of possible human cannon fodder decided not to take it. He wasn’t prevented from taking it. I don’t want to take anything from the Ukrainian defense, which is brave and unrelenting, so hats off to them, but let’s be honest. If he wanted to destroy Kyiv, he could have done so with ease from afar.
This war, called “Special Operation” by the man himself, has always been limited in scope. Achieve the desired goals of annexing the problematic regions, and then close the deal behind a negotiating table. Taking over all of Ukraine was never even a consideration. He miscalculated that it would be easy, but Ukrainians with unlimited Western backing proved him wrong. Thus, the whole thing dragged on and only got worse every day the conflict lasted.
From what I’ve seen, the Russian side is primarily trying to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible. (there are apparent exceptions) Think about it: two years of hot war and reportedly “only” about thirty thousand civilians were killed. Israel will kill as many in a few months, and they’re no Russia. Based on available data, I deduct they keep inflicting just enough damage to secure their positions and keep Ukraine on the defensive, trying to minimize civilian casualties along the way. Either that, or they have terrible aim!
If I had to guess, I think Putin’s play right now is a waiting game. He has the resources, the army, the weapons, the artillery, the production capability, and he has found new economic avenues. In short, he has the time and the resources to fight the long game! Time is on his side. The more time passes, the stronger Russia gets and the weaker Ukraine, along with its Western allies. Sooner or later, they will have to come to the negotiating table. He will be stronger, with possible additional territories won to trade with, and they’ll be weaker as they’ve exhausted their resources, human or otherwise.
The time to end this conflict was yesterday!
I know it’s not a sexy thing to say, but it’s the truth. The sooner the conflict ends, the sooner we can de-escalate, move away from the threat of an all-out nuclear war, and begin rebuilding the cities, repopulating the empty houses, and most importantly, though reluctantly, rebuilding relations with Russia.
“OMG, he wants to make friends with the devil! Is he insane?”
I hear you. I know it doesn’t sit well with you, but it’s still true. We made friends with Japan, Germany, Italy, Turkey, Serbia, and all previous enemies because that’s the right thing to do. We need to move on as soon as possible. The more we cooperate, the more we are interconnected and dependent on each other, mixed even, the better for our future.
There’s a reason the princesses of old were married off to enemies. It guaranteed good relations, blood connections, and a sort of hostage-like stalemate until things settled down. It wasn’t fun for either party involved, but it was rational. Remember when we were rational? Me neither.
What is happening now is the opposite of building relations!
It’s absolute insanity, driven purely by emotions, egos, and virtue signaling. I get it, we don’t like Russia. They’re the bad guys, the evil invaders, the antichrist to our savior or something. Except, all they are are a nation with a different perspective that has been just as brainwashed as we have and believes their leaders who sold them a story of the great, evil, dangerous enemy on the other side. Can’t you see that?
I’m conveniently forgetting to mention the “West’s” part in the reasons for causing this war in the first place. Our hands are not clean, friends. No matter how much you want them to be. We played dirty games, we provoked the bear, and the bear said, “Enough!”
Putin didn’t just wake up one day and say, “Fuck it! I’m going to invade Ukraine for the fun of it, kill a million people, and burn everything we have built in the process. Yes! That will be my legacy.”
Don’t be naive and educate yourself! I’m not saying I agree with his actions or perspective! I just understand where they’re coming from, and you might not.
I know it “feels good” to be all righteous and on the side of the “good guys,” opposing any amnesty or cooperation with the “bad guys.” Of course, it does. Unfortunately, what is the right thing to do isn’t always the one that feels good.
What happens if the war continues
Here are only some dangers of insisting on alienating Russia from the rest of the Western world. None are guaranteed, but all are probable if we continue on this path.
The more we push Russia into isolation, the more they will connect with other countries, bypassing us altogether. This isolation strategy creates a two-sided world instead of one global economy and brotherhood. Each side alienates itself from the other, and we drift apart more each day.
The more we call them evil, and the enemy, the more they will match our propaganda, and hate will continue to rise in both our and their minds until an inevitable fiery outburst. When you call someone an enemy, you make them your enemy. When you call them names such as “evil, murderous dictator and thug,” the more they will live up to their name.
The longer the conflict lasts, the more people will die on both sides, eventually, perhaps even around the world.
The longer the war lasts, the weaker our economies. Prosperity will decline, births will fall off a cliff, and a depressive mental climate will settle in. We all lose, even if we survive.
The longer we play with fire, the greater the odds of it spreading across the world and ending in a nuclear or traditional all-out war. In this scenario, our survival odds go down significantly.
The more we threaten each other, the more resources and willpower will go toward building weapons and ammunition factories, effectively turning us, and especially Russia, into a wartime economy. When it comes to quickly and massively increasing capacities at low costs, we cannot match them, and we know it.
The more we focus on war and fighting, the more fronts will open up worldwide. What we focus on increases in this reality. Two years later, we’re knee-deep in war in the Middle East. It’s only a question of time before a third front is open, one with China over Taiwan perhaps, or some unforeseen conflict, perhaps with North Korea. “The more we war — the more we war” until the pendulum swings, and we finally extinguish this energy of conflict.
Congratulations if you’ve gotten through all of this without wanting to scream at me, “How dare you!” even if we disagree on certain points. You’re using your reason while setting your emotions aside, allowing a different perspective and opinion to be voiced.
I hope cooler heads prevail among our leaders as well. The direction we’re headed in now isn’t all that appealing, but it will one day make for good movies for those who survive.
Not all is doom and gloom
Call me an optimist all you want, but I believe sooner or later, rational thinking will replace emotions, and this war will end. No, not everyone will walk away a winner, and I’m afraid our favorite team, “Team Ukraine,” isn’t a favorite at the bookies.
While nothing is certain, if I had to guess, sooner or later, Ukraine will sit behind the negotiating table with Russia and end this—with the big daddy USA standing behind them, of course. Perhaps even with the “mean orange man” dictating the terms. Who knows? This timeline is just crazy enough.
Before you ask, I don’t know what should be negotiated or what terms are acceptable for either side. I’m guessing it’s not going to be an “all or nothing” type of deal, but one where every side loses something, especially the weaker one, I’m afraid. That is why it’s important to talk and find out.
More talking, less posturing, and fighting would be optimal. They’re called negotiations for a reason. Then, all sides can perhaps find a way out of this mess without dragging the whole world into chaos while passionately yelling, “Not an inch!” in the streets. You know, like grown-ass people, not hysterical, emotional children.
Scott Adams said it well when he predicted that, just like in movies by Act Three, things will look darkest right before the inevitable resolution. Escalation of tensions will end up in a nothing burger, and the battle will be won or lost with a pen, not a gun. I hope he’s right. Our collective futures depend on it.
Until then, try not to worry. It doesn’t help and makes zero difference to the outcome. It merely ruins your mood today. What will be, will be. You and I can waste our lives worrying about things we cannot control, but it will indeed be time wasted.
Stay safe out there!
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