6 TRUTHS of Ukraine War No One Wants to Admit
We all like rooting for the underdog, but reality is not a fairytale. The war needs to stop.
Truth nr. 1 - Ukraine can’t defeat Russia
As in, there’s no way in hell. Zero. Nada! It has no tools, weapons, or manpower to defeat one of the world’s largest superpowers. Get that through your thick skull!
If Russia wanted to take Ukraine as a whole, it could do it anytime.
If Russia wanted to annihilate the Ukrainian people, it’s only a press of a button away.
If Putin wanted to genocide the Ukrainian people, as he’s being accused, he would fight a different war. It’s been three years, and the number of dead civilians, while tragic, is infinitesimally small in comparison to any modern urban conflict.
I understand you want to root for the country being invaded
I know you think it’s unfair. I know you believe Putin is evil incarnate. To some extent, I agree with you. I hate that Putin invaded Ukraine.
But … and yes, there’s a but, things aren’t that simple. For starters, it wasn’t unprovoked—quite the contrary. “Bah, one man bad, other man good” belongs in ferrytales.
If you kick a bear in its balls, deliberately cross all its red lines, and it bites your head off - who’s to blame?
Ukraine put up a good fight and I command them for it, but they can’t win. All they can do is slowly deplete their male population, and prolong the inevitable.
Truth nr. 2 - Ukraine doesn’t want peace, but a victory or World War III
Zelenski, European leaders, and the previous US administration did not want to end the war. They want Russia utterly defeated, Putin removed from power, and brought to justice. To be clear - I agree - sentimentally. The problem is reality!
The only way for Ukraine to win, is for NATO to get involved
If NATO gets involved and attacks Russia, it’s World War III.
Your sons, fathers, brothers go to war, and people all over the world die in the tens of millions. The likelihood of nukes flying above your heads and your favorite cities burning is absolutely too high for the payoff of this gamble.
Should a larger conflict break out, the chances of Iran, North Korea, and China joining up with Russia are overwhelming. That is an Allies and Axes of Evil battle again. Remember what happened the last time (WWII)?
We could win. I think it’s 50/50. Do you want to take that chance? What the hell for?
We have nothing to gain, by defeating Russia, and everything to lose!
IMPORTANT: Ukraine doesn’t want to avoid starting a World War!
It’s already at a total war and has nothing to lose by escalating the conflict, but you and I do.
Ukraine intends to drag Europe and the USA into this conflict with Russia, and has tried it countless times through deceit, lies, and pressure. It’s the only chance they have of defeating their enemy.
They do not have your best interest at heart - only their own, which directly conflict with yours (Europe and the US). Act accordingly and stop pretending otherwise.
Are you sure you still demand Ukraine wins?
If Russia “wins” Ukraine loses some, partly Russian-speaking territories. The world moves on. No, it’s not fair.
If Ukraine “wins,” we’re all at war with Russia and its allies (possibly China, Iran, North Korea), tens of millions of people are dead, economies are in chaos, and we’re all poor. But the “good guys” won. We stood up to the bully.
Truth nr. 3 - Russia has all the time in the world, the West does not
Russia has the resources to redesign its economy into a war economy, and has partly already done so. They vastly outproduce the West in costs and quantities of weapons they build every day. Every day this war prolongs, they grow stronger.
Russia doesn’t need the peace agreement, Ukraine does.
The longer the war lasts, the more territory Ukraine will lose
Is it fair? No. Is it nice? No. Do we like it? Also no! But it is a fact and we must face reality. The war could have ended years ago, but “we” stopped it, because we wanted to weaken Russia.
Three years and hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded later, Ukraine has less territory, not more. I don’t see this changing. Math is math.
Truth nr. 4 - Putin can’t invade Europe and he knows it
This fear mongering with Putin wanting other European countries is nonsense. This is my opinion and observation, not necessarily a fact, for I don’t presume to know what the man wants. I can’t see into his head.
I can only judge his actions, words, and capabilities. None of them indicate a desire or ability to take over Europe.
Europe has nukes. It has an alliance—for now—and the power to stand its ground, especially with the USA backing it. There is no payoff for Russia and Putin to invade Europe. Zero!
Russia is not the former Soviet Union. That was an entirely different beast.
Truth nr. 5 - all wars end with negotiation or surrender
Surrender from the Russian side is nonsense, unless we’re willing to escalate this to a World War III.
This conflict will end with a contract, where everyone loses something, but Ukraine most of all, because - like it or not - it’s the weaker party, and is losing the war.
The sooner an agreement is signed, the better
Furthermore, if this agreement includes economic incentives and contracts, it will last longer than if it is solely based on threats.
If Russia has an economic interest in staying away from Ukraine, it will do so. If we keep the sanctions or even make them more pressing, it will incentivise Russia to wreak further chaos in the world. I know you don’t like it, but that’s the truth.
Compromise is better than war.
Partial win for all, is better than complete loss.
Building a golden bridge for Putin to back out, seemingly a winner for his people, is preferable to pushing him into a corner, where his existence will depend on defeating Ukraine the hard way.
We need to make friends with our adversaries
This one may hurt some of your feelings. Isolating Russia and ignoring and insulting Putin haven’t worked. I guess mean words don’t hurt as much as you think.
It only further divided the world, which is the opposite of achieving world peace again.
In order to work together in peace and harmony and thrive globally, we have to act like adults, not emotional children.
Truth nr. 6 - the future is unknown and possibly dangerous
A million connected global relations and questions are hanging in the balance of the result of this war. The world stage has become a powder keg of possible conflicts. The longer it lasts, the greater the chances of something terrible happening, sparking the fuse of global tragedy.
So, now what?
Now, we work to stop conflicts where we can, build an interconnected world, where we all lose if one party does the unthinkable, and face the situations as they come.
Hopefully as friends and allies, strong, and united. It’s not sexy or satisfying, but it works. Escalating tensions and further dividing nations achieves the opposite effect, but it feels just.
Reality check - I don’t know anything and neither do you
We simply cannot know for sure which path is better:
To attack now, force the situation to climax, or wait it out.
Abandon Ukraine, forcing it to compromise, or give it more weapons.
To show strenght and the size of our nuclear dicks, or to calm the situation down.
Everything we do can have negative consequences. Even if we do everything right, we may still end up in chaos.
Unfortunately, we can only use the information we have and make the best possible choices today. Tomorrow, we’ll deal with whatever cards we’re dealt.
I vote to stop the killing and isolation, and try rebuilding our relations as soon as possible, even if it doesn’t feel good. I recognize the danger of appeasing Putin, but I see a greater risk of this conflict escalating out of control.
We continuously monitor the situation and prepare for the worst. We don’t have to pretend the danger isn’t present.
Let’s stop the momentum of spreading conflicts in this world, before they consume us all, make deals where we all profit from peace and cooperation, and lose in the case of conflicts.
Out of interest, what would your advice have been to the British in 1940? I think you are incorrect on a number of your conclusions. I don’t think it’s inevitable that Putin will win or that time is on his side. The west has a much greater productive capacity and eventually the Russians will quit. Sometimes you have to continue to resist evil. As evil wins when good men do nothing